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ランド円、9円台と8円台の攻防!

2014/01/31

2年ぶり位に、一時ランド円が8円台に、割り込みました。

現在も、8円台に、行くのかという状況です。

為替レートみていますと、日本時間に、やや上昇して欧州、ニューヨーク時間に、下げるといった動きですね。

ランド円が、ここから下げるのか、今までどおり、9円、10
円と上昇して行くのか?

非常に気になる、面白い相場です。

為替のランドスレッドをみると、ショートしてる人もいれば、スワップロンガーでロングしてる人もいますね。

ランド円の最安値更新なるか?

じっくり、見守っていきます。

[ 備考]

米FOMC声明の内容

労働市場は強弱混在

一段の改善が確認できる

次の緩和縮小措置は2月に開始

金融政策の決定は全員一致

失業率が6.5%を十分に下回るまでは低金利を維持する

[感想]

やはり、新興国の懸念の問題が、今後の為替の動きに関係しそうです。

市場は、新興国の懸念の問題に敏感になっていると感じました。

最近のドル円相場は、入り込んでしまった日足一目均衡表雲上限の攻防となっています。下は102円割れても、その時間帯

が短く、すでに

実需の買いが出ているようですが102円を割り込まない時間が長くなるとさらに実需の買いが出て来るでしょう。

長期の視点で見ると、

ドル円の25年チャート眺めれば中期的な未来が見えました。85年、90年、95年、00年、05年と5年おきにトレ

ンドを変化させています。85年と90年は一方的なドル安相場を作りだした。95年からは5年のサイクルを形成するよ

うになっていた。

そして5年おきに底値を形成し、ドル高トレンドに向かっていました。

2015年、新たなドル円のトレンドの転換期になるかもしれません。

日本の株式市場ですが、

日経平均株価は15,000円台を維持できるか?

となっていますが、まずは下抜けしている雲下限(15,100円あたりで長く横ばい)を突破できるかに注目しています。
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